可穿戴式设备虽有戏 健康腕带追踪时代或将衰落【bat365手机版官网】

The news broke on a recent Friday night: Nike Fires Majority of FuelBand Team, Will Stop Making Wearable Hardware. It was a shock to just about anyone who had bought, worked on, wrote about, or invested in the white-hot category called wearables.不久前的一个周五晚上传出了一个重大新闻：耐克公司（Nike）炒掉了FuelBand团队的大部分成员，将暂停生产可穿着设备。对买过、用过、报导过或投资过所谓“可穿着设备”这款炙手可热产品的人来说，这个消息都无不于晴天霹雳。Hailed as the next big platform in computing, wearable smart devices like fitness tracking bracelets, clip-on heart monitors, Google Glass, smartwatches, and even smart wigs (yes, smart wigs) suddenly looked a lot less interesting.这样一来，一度被玉女为下一代计算出来大平台的可穿着“智能”设备，如身体健康跟踪腕带、卡扣式心脏监护仪、谷歌眼镜、智能手表，甚至还有智能裙子（到底，就是智能裙子）忽然之间就魅力大减半。

If Nike (NKE), which had sold an estimated $33 million worth of FuelBand bracelets in 2013, employing 200 people and even running an accelerator program around the device, was no longer interested, did this spell disaster for the category? What does Nike know that the rest of us didnt?2013年，耐克公司卖出了大约3300万美元的FuelBand腕带，为此它讨了200名员工，甚至环绕这个设备积极开展了一个加快计划。如果它都对可穿着设备没有兴趣了，这是不是意味著这种设备气数将尽了？耐克又是怎么告诉我们没有兴趣了呢？Since the news, the top wearable makers have openly touted the future of their business. This week at the TechCrunch Disrupt conference in New York, Hosain Rahman, CEO of Jawbone, said his company will expand the amount of data it tracks and services around it. Jawbones UP band accounts for 19% of the fitness tracking device market. Meanwhile Fitbit, which dominates the category with 68% market share, made a short statement to CNET that its been doing this for seven years, guys. Fitbit, with products like the Flex, One, and Zip, remains confident, despite some of the recent sensationalized headlines.这个消息曝出后，一些可穿着设备顶级制造商就开始公开发表造势，肆意图形自己业务的美好未来。本周在纽约举办的TechCrunch Disrupt大会上，Jawbone公司首席执行官侯赛因o拉赫曼称之为，公司将拓展它跟踪的数据量，减少服务种类。

Jawbone的UP腕带现在已占到身体健康跟踪市场19%的份额。同时，以68%的市场份额一跃市场大哥的Fitbit公司则对科技资讯网（CNET）做到了一个结尾声明，称之为自己这么做到早就有七年之久了。凭借Flex、One和Zip这些产品，“尽管最近喷出了几条耸人听闻的头条新闻，”Fitbit再不热情满满。Even Nike has clarified the initial report, saying it is not giving up on all of fitness tracking, only the hardware part. Nike will stop producing FuelBands itself, but it will continue to build software and fitness tracking apps for phones, smartwatches, and whatever other form factor smart devices take.耐克也车站出来回应最初的报导，称之为不是要退出所有的身体健康跟踪业务，只是退出硬件罢了。

耐克将仍然生产FuelBand，但还不会之后为智能手机、智能手表以及各种智能设备打造出软件和身体健康跟踪应用于。Nonetheless, its clear the fitness tracking and wearables need to evolve beyond their initial offerings. Many of the fitness trackers in their current form are large, unattractive, uncomfortable bracelets. But an even bigger issue is what these devices do. As my colleague JP Mangalindan wrote earlier this week, his quest to become a quant junkie failed when the available options required him to use disparate systems that didnt talk to each other:不过，现有的身体健康跟踪和可穿着设备似乎必须改良。现在很多身体健康追踪器都是又大又漂亮、戴起来也不难受的腕带。

而更大的问题在于它们的实际功能。正如我的同事JPo曼格林丹本周初写的那样，他想要变为数字达人的心愿落了空，因为这些设备上的能用选项拒绝他用于几乎有所不同、彼此无法相容的系统：One day, I just stopped using everything. I had invested hundreds of dollars into hardware and software and cobbled them together so I could to get a holistic picture of my day. But the process felt too complicated for its own good -- a wristband for sleeping, another for the daytime. An app for eating, and then another running. Why couldnt there be one piece of hardware and software to rule them all?有一天，我开始停止使用任何设备。本来我花上了好几百美元卖硬件卖软件，再行把它们生拉硬凑到一起，以为这样就能全面理解我每天的身体健康信息了。但构建这个目标的过程感觉真是太费事了——睡必须一种腕带，白天必须另外一种，睡觉必须一种应用于，跑步又要用别的。

为什么就无法有种软硬件一体的设备来继续执行所有这些任务呢？Beyond that, merely knowing how many steps youve taken each day isnt all that compelling to a large, mainstream audience. Its why one-third of consumers have abandoned their devices, according to a report by Endeavor Partners. Industry insiders say the number of inactive fitness tracking devices is likely much higher than that.除了这一点，对绝大多数人来说，光告诉自己每天回头了多少步只不过没什么吸引力。咨询公司Endeavor Partners的一份报告称之为，这也是为什么有三分之一的消费者没有再行用这类设备。

而业内人士称之为，实际停止使用的身体健康跟踪设备数量很有可能比这非常少。For wearables and fitness trackers to become a permanent part of our lives, the devices must become need to have, not nice to have. The only way to do that is to offer better functionality. I spoke with Sonny Vu, CEO of Misfit, about the future of the category. His company was called Misfit Wearables until recently, when it dropped the word wearables from its name.可穿着设备和身体健康追踪器要想要沦为我们生活中不可或缺的一部分，它们就必需沦为“必不可少的”、而不是“有了也不俗”的时髦玩意。要构建这个目标，唯一的办法是不具备更佳的功能。

我曾和Misfit公司的首席执行官桑尼o乌探究过这种产品今后的发展。他的公司直到最近还叫Misfit Wearables，然后才去除wearables这个词。Vu said he expects fitness trackers to be a tiny part of the overall wearables industry. Theyll be like iPods and GPS trackers -- useful to some, but no longer top sellers, and mostly replaced by smartphone apps. Fitness trackers will likely be killed by the smartwatch, Vu says.乌回应，他指出身体健康跟踪设备今后只不会占到可穿着设备市场的一小部分。它们将像iPod和GPS追踪器一样——对有些人简单，但再也不会最畅销热销，而且它们中的大多数都将被智能手机应用于所代替。

他说道，它们很有可能被智能手表给杀掉。His company produced a fitness tracking wearable device for practice, even as he knows the category will quickly peak and decline. We did it because were being opportunistic, he says. This is where things are going now, and were exercising our muscles as an organization to build and ship a product.就算他坚称身体健康跟踪可穿着设备市场不会迅速大起大落，他们公司还是投产了，目的主要是为了练手。

他说道：“我们这么做到主要是为了抓住机会。它是现在的发展潮流，我们作为一家公司生产它并投放市场可以小试身手。”The next step in the evolution of wearable devices will require a more compelling use case. It will need to pass the turn around test, he says. That means, would you turn around for it if you were halfway to work and realized youd forgotten it? Most people would turn around for their phone, keys, or wallet. But they wouldnt turn around for their activity monitors.可穿着设备要更进一步发展必须有极具吸引力的用于案例。

他说道，它必需经过“上前测验”的考验。这就是说，如果人们在下班路上忘了带上它，他们不会会上前回家去拿？大多数人会上前回家拿手机、钥匙和钱包。但他们会为了这些活动监控设备上前回来。

Fitness tracking is just not a compelling use case, Vu says. We makers havent been able to make it sufficiently compelling. It doesnt pass the turn around test. It doesnt even come close.乌说道：“身体健康跟踪还不是过于有吸引力的用于案例。我们这些厂家还不了让它具备充足的吸引力，它不了通过上前测验，甚至连相似这个水平都做到将近。”Vu is already scheming up ideas to make wearable devices more compelling.不过他早已在策划让可穿着设备更加有吸引力的创新了。One way to pass the turn around test is with persistent identity. Better than fingerprint recognition, wearable devices would use a persons heart waves to identify them. This proposition becomes compelling, if it identifies you, opens your car, turns on your lights and you can use it to pay, all with your physiological signature, he says, and once your take it off of your body, it is no longer a secure device.要通过上前测验的一个办法是让它享有“相同身份”。

比指纹识别更佳的一点是，可穿着设备可以用人们的心电图来辨识用户。他说道：“如果它能用你的生理信号见到你，关上车门，熄灯，还能付账，一旦离开了你的身体，它就仍然安全性好用，”那这种功能将不会很有吸引力。

Vu said this would be similar to Disneys MagicBands, the bracelets that allow families visiting a Disney (DIS) theme park to check in, unlock their hotel rooms, enter parks, pay for goods, and connect to their photos online, all by scanning a bracelet. MagicBands essentially replace keys and wallets within Disneys properties. That is something I could get behind if they could make it a little nicer and it worked outside of the Magic Kingdom and in the rest of the world, Vu says.乌说道这将不会和迪斯尼公司（Disney）的魔力腕带（Magicband）很像。这条腕带只要扫瞄一下，就能让一家人去迪斯尼主题公园玩游戏时办理住进、关上旅馆房门、转入公园、卖东西、网际网路查阅照片。

实质上在迪斯尼所属的领地里，这条魔力腕带就代替了钥匙和钱包。乌称：“如果迪斯尼公司能把它做到得更加可爱些，它还能在魔法王国以外的其他地方用上的话，我一定会力挺它。”Thats one direction the hot category of wearable devices is likely to go. But for now, Vu is sticking with fitness trackers. Launched in the fourth quarter of 2013, Misfit sold 200,000 devices, a number thats increasing each quarter. He expects that, like the market for iPods and GPS trackers, fitness trackers like his will decline, and some hardware makers will follow Nikes footsteps, focusing on smartwatch software over hardware.这就是现在大冷的可穿着设备一个有可能的发展方向。

但现在乌还得继续做身体健康跟踪设备。Misfit的这个设备2013年第四季度亮相，现在早已售出了20万个，而且每个季度的销量都在快速增长。

他预计，和iPod及GPS追踪器的市场一样，像他这种身体健康追踪器的销售也不会渐渐上升，一些硬件厂商也不会步耐克的后尘，最后致力研发智能手表的软件而不是硬件。The era of fitness tracking devices might be waning. But for wearables, its still early days.身体健康跟踪设备的时代有可能将日益衰败，但对可穿着设备来说，日子才刚开始。

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